Banca de DEFESA: ANDERSON RODRIGO OLIVEIRA DA SILVA

SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY IN HIGH SCHOOL EDUCATION: constitution of epistemic indicators and students' knowledge

educação estatística; letramento probabilístico; probabilidade subjetiva; ensino médio.

Probability plays a relevant social role in helping reading, interpreting and making decisions in contexts involving different random situations. In the field of Probabilistic Education there is guidance for work in the classroom that addresses probability and its different meanings. Current literature points out that studies on the relationship between students and Subjective Probability are still rare. This study has as its central focus the Subjective Meaning of Probability and as an objective to investigate the knowledge about subjective probability of Teaching students in the light of epistemic indicators. Methodologically, 10 students from the 3rd year of high school at a public school located in the city of Pesqueira-PE were selected to respond to three questionnaires. The questionnaires were divided into three phases: an initial one, addressing problems of subjective probability; a door game simulation questionnaire, and a third questionnaire involving all the epistemic subjective probability indicators elaborated in the study. The results pointed to a good understanding of the students about facets of subjective meaning. However, there were difficulties relating to basic probability calculations, such as conditional probability, or output from the equiprobability spectrum. Problems close to those found in textbooks showed less difficulties in interpretation and algorithmic manipulation. A weakness of the study lies in not having experienced an intervention process specifically on the multiple meanings of probability. Thus, we defend that the approach of knowing probability is accompanied by its different meanings, in order to develop a holistic view of the concept.