Banca de DEFESA: CARLA ALEXANDRE BARBOZA DE SOUSA

Future scenarios for an online education: perspectives of innovation in higher education

Scenery of the future; Online education; Ead; Educational innovation.

This research aimed to investigate the four main future scenarios of online education, focusing on higher education. Its epistemological basis is Morin's Complexity Theory, as it is based on multidimensional aspects that seek to distinguish, connect, and accept the challenge of uncertainties. In this study, the definition of innovation used is from Christensen (2009), in which innovation meets previously unmet needs and can be complex, specifically situated, and possibly happening at multiple levels (products, processes and services) to sustain a trajectory. For the educational field, we complement the OECD (2010) definition that innovation is any dynamic change intended to add value to the educational process and culminate in measurable results, whether in terms of stakeholder satisfaction or academic performance. The thesis connects between the scenery creation methodology, the processes of innovation in education and the concepts of distance learning and online education so that we look to the future as a field of research and as a locus of educational innovation. The methodology used in the study is based on the Schwartz method, Futures Design and Transformative Scenarios, in which subjects representing the system participated together in the entire process. As main results, we point to two driving forces: integrating emerging technologies into online distance learning to promote more immersive experiences and articulating and updating the curriculum with the job market. When positive, these forces bring a promising scenario for online education; however, when negative or mixed, they point to challenges that must be considered carefully so that the EaD system does not collapse in 2030. The lack of qualified labour and the growing demand for distance learning appear as pre-determined elements which occur in any scenario. We analyzed the four scenarios using the SWOT matrix to list strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Every process built to meet an educational perspective's needs generated a framework validated for strategic planning and future literacy for teachers and managers.