Banca de DEFESA: LUCAS BORGES LEAL DA SILVA

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : LUCAS BORGES LEAL DA SILVA
DATE: 09/05/2022
TIME: 09:30
LOCAL: Online
TITLE:
KEY WORDS:

flood risk; climate change; multi-criteria decision making/aiding; MAUT; NSMAUT; decision analysis.

PAGES: 135
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Produção
SUMMARY:

Urban adaptation implies combating the multifaceted effects of the climate and requires public managers to propose a broad agenda between public and private technical-scientific institutions, in order to take preventive, efficient, and innovative decisions concerning floods. Given this backdrop, this work contributes to the state-of-the-art by proposing flood risk prioritization models in urban areas under the multicriteria approach. Therefore, this thesis explores multidimensional modeling to support the decision-making process, thereby inserting the decision-maker's (DM’s) preferences, in terms of expected utility (EU), by using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), Decision Analysis and other important methodological advances in this field. Comprising environmental, financial, human, mobility, and social issues simultaneously, the models deal with risk assessment by combining the sources of hazard and its consequences with EUs under a stationary perspective, in short- and long-term decisions. On the other hand, a new multicriteria method was structured to introduce time dependence into the EU-based modeling in traditional MAUT. The NonStationary MAUT (NSMAUT) method inserts the increasing impatience by the DM when judging, in terms of utilities, his/her preference for receiving outcomes in the future, with the aid of climatic and demographic forecasting techniques. Numerical applications were performed with a Decision Support System developed as a product from this work. It comprises statistical tools with sensitivity analysis, georeferencing, and graphical visualization that provide the DM a wide range of information so that he/she justifies their strategic decisions under credibility. Consequently, the contributions explored in this work have the potential to improve not only financial impacts, thereby allocating properly financial resources to fund adaptation measures, but also social and environmental implications, once the findings share important evidence that supports policymakers in combating social inequalities and pessimistic climate projections from integrated urban adaptation policies under climate and urbanization effects. Although the models proposed have different perspectives regarding the same problem, the models are complementary, they share useful insights and can be used in a practical context based on local needs and limitations, being replicable to any urban space.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - LUÍS MIGUEL CÂNDIDO DIAS
Externa à Instituição - MARIA CLARA FAVA
Presidente - 1203400 - ADIEL TEIXEIRA DE ALMEIDA
Interna - 1385501 - ANA PAULA CABRAL SEIXAS COSTA
Interna - 1561347 - DANIELLE COSTA MORAIS
Externo ao Programa - 2805590 - MARCELO HAZIN ALENCAR