Banca de DEFESA: PAULO GABRIEL SANTOS CAMPOS DE SIQUEIRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : PAULO GABRIEL SANTOS CAMPOS DE SIQUEIRA
DATE: 16/02/2022
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Online
TITLE:

STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR QUANTITATIVE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF OIL SPILLS NEAR FERNANDO DE NORONHA ARCHIPELAGO

KEY WORDS:

Quantitative risk assessment. Ecological modeling. Maritime accidents. Fate and transport modeling. Bayesian variability analysis.

PAGES: 128
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Produção
SUMMARY:

Industrial accidents, such as toxic spills, have caused catastrophic damage to ecological environments (animals and plants), so that an effective method to assess ecological risks has been demanded. The high number of vessels, including oil tankers that circulate the globe, along with extreme events such as storms and tropical besides cyclones due to global warming, increase the risk of potential oil spills affect oceanic islands. In Brazil, the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago (FNA) has a Conservation Unit’s status, protecting endemic species and maintaining a healthy island ecosystem. Moreover, the consequences of a spill can be even aggravated since FNA lacks infrastructure and mitigation plans for such accidents. The methodology used to quantify such risks is based on stochastic population modeling and can consider extreme and rare events, such as oil spills. It considers both the event’s frequency of occurrence and the magnitude of the adverse ecological effects, capable of quantifying ecological risks as a probability of extinction (or decline) of a given species representative of the ecosystem. It can also predict populations’ responses to toxic exposure via population-level endpoints such as abundance. Other models are integrated into the assessment: (i) oil spill simulation to compute the oil concentration reaching FNA, and (ii) the Bayesian Population Variability Analysis, to estimate the accidents frequency occurrence from databases and expert opinions. Then, we can assess the ecological risks of such accidents and summarize these results in risk categories to be easily communicated to the general public. Finally, the risk results would provide relevant information that will aid decision-makers in avoiding such a disastrous event and/or mitigating its impacts.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Interna - 2732514 - ISIS DIDIER LINS
Presidente - 2766188 - MARCIO JOSE DAS CHAGAS MOURA
Externa à Instituição - MARILIA ABILIO RAMOS