Strategic conflicts. Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Solution concepts.
Variable horizon. Preferences.
A strategic conflict is a situation that can involve two or more decision makers (DMs) with
different and conflicting objectives, which makes the decision-making process complex and
difficult to resolve. For example, armed conflicts, organizations that dispute for exploitation,
sharing and control of resources, and the governments of nations seeking to reach a solution
regarding the responsibilities of global environmental issues are cases where the use of a
management tool such as the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) can contribute
to guide DMs to make more efficient and informed decisions. The GMCR is a structured
methodology for modeling and analyzing strategic interactions according to a set of solution
concepts. Each solution concept is structured to capture certain characteristics of human behavior.
However, it is important to develop new solution concepts when current mechanisms are unable
to capture variants of DMs’ behavior. In this context, the aim of this work is to propose new
stability concepts for the GMCR based on alternative behavior patterns and the absence or partial
knowledge of the DMs’ preferences. The first ones are called Credible Optimism Pessimism
Stabilities (COPS), proposed to analyze conflicts considering that some DM can make only
credible moves if it decides to leave a current state. In addition, COPS use the optimistic and
pessimistic views of the focal DM to circumvent uncertainty about their opponents’ choices. The
second one is Minimax Regret Stability at horizon h (MARh), which evaluates conflict states
by considering that DMs are concerned about regreting their decisions. Also, it recommends
a policy that minimizes the maximum regret that can arise in the conflict evolution. The last
notion proposed is Variable Horizon Stability with Partially Known Preferences (PPCh), whose
motivation is to consider situations with partial knowledge about the preferences of the focal
DM opponent when analyzing the stability of states. In addition, for each new definition of
stability, an investigation was carried out to identify the properties related to the degree of
optimism, the conflict horizon and other GMCR solution concepts. Finally, applications of these
contributions were conducted with case studies of real conflicts to demonstrate their applicability
and managerial contributions.