Banca de DEFESA: RAMON SWELL GOMES RODRIGUES CASADO

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : RAMON SWELL GOMES RODRIGUES CASADO
DATE: 19/07/2023
TIME: 10:00
LOCAL: Online
TITLE:
KEY WORDS:

Natural gas pipeline; Multidimensional risk assessment; Portfolio selection;
Implicit enumeration; Sensitivity analysis.

PAGES: 126
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia de Produção
SUMMARY:

Natural gas plays an essential role as a source of the energy transition. The development of
natural gas transportation systems, particularly pipelines, is associated with the use of natural
gas. In this regard, carriers face significant infrastructure, risk management, and operational
efficiency challenges. Therefore, this paper intends to contribute to the decision-making process
regarding risk management for natural gas pipelines, making it more explicit, rational, and
structured. In other words, it is appropriate to consider an evaluation involving multiple
dimensions of consequence to which pipelines are subjected. To this end, the thesis explores a
multidimensional risk assessment (based on Utility Theory and Decision Theory) capable of
aggregating the probabilities, consequence values, and preferences of the gas carrier manager
in the face of this multiple-dimension scenario. In addition, this work efficiently directs the
focus of risk mitigation. A portfolio approach is used to support the strategic selection of the
most critical sections of the pipeline. In this sense, the new model allows carriers to deal with
the dilemma of investing in risk mitigation along the pipeline without exceeding organizational
resources, ensuring the continuity of natural gas supply and the safety of their operations. In
this regard, some studies recommend using additive models and mathematical programming
(considering interval scale transformation) to solve such problems (portfolio). However, such
an approach is inadequate when the modeling is based on Utility Theory (due to the axiomatic
structure). As a result of this impasse, this thesis introduces an implicit enumeration algorithm
to deal with portfolio selection when the interval scale is the only form of measurement. A
numerical application was performed to validate the proposed model and a robust and
comprehensive investigation of the model's sensitivity. The results show the proposed model's
credibility in identifying the pipeline's most critical sections. Consequently, managers can
benefit from the model's information to guide strategic decision-making, contributing to cost
reduction, increased safety, improved operational efficiency, minimized social and
environmental impacts, and strengthened company reputation.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - ANDRE LUIS POLICANI FREITAS - UENF
Interna - 1510962 - CAROLINE MARIA DE MIRANDA MOTA
Interna - 1561347 - DANIELLE COSTA MORAIS
Externo à Instituição - HELDER GOMES COSTA - UFF
Presidente - 2805590 - MARCELO HAZIN ALENCAR