Banca de DEFESA: ERISON ROSA DE OLIVEIRA BARROS

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ERISON ROSA DE OLIVEIRA BARROS
DATE: 26/08/2022
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia Civil
TITLE:

Modeling of Land Change Trends as a Support for Support to Territorial Control of Domain Strips: A Study Applied to Highways BR-408, BR-104 and BR-101/PE

KEY WORDS:

Irregular occupations. Road frontage roads. Land Change Modeler. Cellular Automata.

PAGES: 218
BIG AREA: Engenharias
AREA: Engenharia Civil
SUMMARY:

This thesis proposes a model to study irregular occupations on the domain strips of highways, which uses state succession data on land use and land cover from MapBiomas, IBGE statistical grids, as well as variables, indicators and socioeconomic, infrastructure and environmental indices of the areas within and bordering the highways. The approach presented by the research uses techniques described in scientific literature with application in various areas of science, but that have not yet been used to study the phenomenon of irregular occupations of the domain strips of highways. This is a complex phenomenon that occurs in areas with heterogeneous specificities (immense diversity of social, economic and land cover situations) due to their immense extension and the lack of an efficient management strategy. And that may require many variables to calibrate a simulation model. The research used space-time clippings that cover the highways BR-408, BR-104, and BR-101 in sections that cut through the state of Pernambuco, in the period of the years 2000, 2010, and 2018. Dynamic simulation models were then developed, based on the "Land Change Modeler (LCM)" modeling via cellular automata. Cellular automata have a very simple structure and are able to model several complex phenomena by means of simple rules. For the development of the model, a QGIS plugin called MOLUSCE (Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation) was adopted, which shows the potential transition map and simulation results (projected), produced based on a cellular automata model in the Monte Carlos approach. The results of the proposed model on the highways proved to be satisfactory when compared with the cadastral survey of irregular occupations conducted in 2018 by the PROFAIXA Program carried out by the National Department of Transportation Infrastructure - DNIT.  The models showed that in the period from 2000 to 2010 there was no reduction in irregular occupations, demonstrating the inoperability of the institutions that make the territorial management of the domain strip of highways in all sections studied and that the occupations are more intense within the urban perimeter, as well as it was found that some classes of land cover among certain conditions are susceptible to irregular occupation. The modeling proposed for the irregular occupations on the domain strip of the highways makes it possible to describe in a methodological way how data made available by various institutions can help to create models capable of anticipating irregular occupations (constructions) in these spaces. The contribution of the thesis lies in the creation of models to support the proposition of public policies and actions to supervise more effectively the areas susceptible to irregular occupations.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externo à Instituição - SILAS NOGUEIRA DE MELO - UEMA
Externo ao Programa - 2313407 - JOAO RODRIGUES TAVARES JUNIOR
Externo ao Programa - 1769444 - RODRIGO MIKOSZ GONCALVES
Externa ao Programa - 1193649 - SIMONE SAYURI SATO
Presidente - 1054052 - VIVIANE ADRIANO FALCAO