Hydrological Stress as a Guide in Guaranteeing Water Safety Guarantee
Water resources management. Hydrological stress. Automatic calibration.Statistical error analysis. Goiana river basin.
The management of water resources needs tools to help decision-making in the multipleactivities related to water. The dissemination and application of methods that can increaseefficiency and assertiveness is crucial for successful decisions. The present study brings twotools to assist in this decision-making: the degree of hydrological stress (HS) and automaticcalibration. In this sense, the degree of hydrological stress for the Goiana river basin isdetermined, the indicator defines threshold values for the proportion between the peak value ofthe set of demand flows and a given percentile of the permanence curve according to thecriteria for concession of grant from the State, thus evaluating levels of hydrological stress inthe studied sub-basins. The other tool studied in the work is the sensitivity analysis andautomatic calibration of hydrological parameters, for the Goiana basin. A hydrological modelingstructure of the basin was built in the PCSMMM hydrodynamic model (Personal ComputerStorm Water Management Model) and the analyzes were carried out in 10 sub-basins. Basedon the model developed for the basin, the resources available in the PCSWMM for sensitivityanalysis and automatic calibration, known as SRTC (Sensitivity-based Radio TuningCalibration), were used initially to evaluate the most sensitive parameters and then to performthe adjustment of basin parameters. The results pointed to a situation of “High” hydrologicalstress (HS) in the Nazaré da Mata sub-basin, with approximately 94.76% of conceivable flowutilization. Given these results, this part of the work reinforces the importance of constantmonitoring of data on water use demand in the region and the improvement of granting criteria by management bodies. For the analysis of automatic calibration, the results show a veryadvanced performance of the tools, bringing speed and confidence to the decision making ofwater resources managers.