AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS, HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND THE LABOR MARKET: Empirical Evidence for Brazil between 2002 and 2015
Exports. Primary goods. Human capital. Instrumental Variables. Agricultural Employment. Non-Agricultural Employment. Formal Employment. Informal Employment.
The general objective of the work is to evaluate the empirical relationships of causality between agricultural exports, the accumulation of human capital and the labor market based on annual state data for the period from 2002 to 2015. To this end, two tests were carried out to : (i) to examine the effects of primary goods exports on human capital accumulation and (ii) to investigate the effect of agricultural exports on the agricultural and non-agricultural labor market, both using the Instrumental Variables Method. The main data used were collected from the Export Secretariat of the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC), from the National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), from the National Institute of Meteorology through the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (INMET) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). As a result, from the first essay, it was possible to observe that exports of primary goods negatively affected Brazilian education, since for every 1% increase in the share of primary exports, there is a decline of approximately 0,04% in the average of years of education. schooling, in addition to being a significant factor for the increase in dropout in secondary and higher education. In addition, the possibility was raised that the educational investment policy was not being effective, as well as acting negatively on the continuity of the student in education after basic education. As for the second trial, the main results revealed that agricultural export exposure significantly expanded agricultural employment, proving to be a strong factor in boosting rural income. However, there was a negative effect of this exposure on the level of non-farm employment. Therefore, the growth of agricultural exports feeds the sector itself, without generating a positive and significant diffusion for the others, provoking a stimulus to non-industrialization. In this way, primary exports behaved as a setback factor for Brazilian development.