Banca de DEFESA: JOSÉ KAWAN DOS SANTOS SANTANA
Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.DISCENTE: JOSÉ KAWAN DOS SANTOS SANTANA
DATA : 24/02/2026
HORA: 16:00
LOCAL: CCSA - Virtual
TÍTULO:
The Effects of US Tariff Shocks on Small Open Economies
PALAVRAS-CHAVES:
This dissertation studies the macroeconomic effects of U.S. tariff
shocks using a quarterly unbalanced panel of 25 economies, 11
advanced and 14 emerging economies from 1987 to 2024.
Relying on the transitory and permanent U.S. tariff shock series
constructed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2025), we estimate
Panel Local Projections to assess the dynamic responses of
output growth, inflation, real exchange rates, nominal interest
rates, and trade balance-to-output ratio. We show that the
macroeconomic effects of tariffs depend critically on their
perceived persistence. While transitory tariff increases generate
short-lived and reversible fluctuations, permanent tariff shocks
lead to persistent output losses, sustained inflationary pressures,
prolonged exchange rate depreciation, and extended monetary
tightening. These effects are significantly stronger in emerging
economies, highlighting their greater vulnerability to lasting
increases in global trade barriers.
PÁGINAS: 36
RESUMO:
This dissertation studies the macroeconomic effects of U.S. tariff
shocks using a quarterly unbalanced panel of 25 economies, 11
advanced and 14 emerging economies from 1987 to 2024.
Relying on the transitory and permanent U.S. tariff shock series
constructed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2025), we estimate
Panel Local Projections to assess the dynamic responses of
output growth, inflation, real exchange rates, nominal interest
rates, and trade balance-to-output ratio. We show that the
macroeconomic effects of tariffs depend critically on their
perceived persistence. While transitory tariff increases generate
short-lived and reversible fluctuations, permanent tariff shocks
lead to persistent output losses, sustained inflationary pressures,
prolonged exchange rate depreciation, and extended monetary
tightening. These effects are significantly stronger in emerging
economies, highlighting their greater vulnerability to lasting
increases in global trade barriers.
MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Externa à Instituição - ANDREZA PALMA
Presidente - 1769063 - MARCELO EDUARDO ALVES DA SILVA
Interno - 2777451 - RAFAEL DA SILVA VASCONCELOS