Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: HAROLDO EMILIO RODRIGUEZ PAEZ

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
DISCENTE: HAROLDO EMILIO RODRIGUEZ PAEZ
DATA : 12/06/2025
LOCAL: economia
TÍTULO:

Essays on the Peace Process, Resource Misallocation, Poverty,and Educational Outcomes

PALAVRAS-CHAVES:

Essays on the Peace Process, Resource Misallocation, Poverty,
and Educational Outcomes

PÁGINAS: 100
RESUMO:

Wars are devastating events that affect every dimension of
society, generating harm that extends well beyond physical
destruction and economic losses. They intensify poverty,
heighten inequality, destroy human capital, foster insecurity,
suppress entrepreneurship, and curtail both economic growth and
long-term development. Literature documents these effects
extensively. For instance, Collier (1999) estimates that civil wars
reduce annual GDP growth by approximately 2.2 percent.
Farzanegan (2022) finds that the Iran-Iraq war reduced the real
per capita income of the average Iranian by nearly 40%.
Similarly, Novta and Pugacheva (2021) show that, on average,
private consumption declines by 25% and per capita income by
28% ten years after a conflict. In the case of Syria, Devadas et al.
(2021) report that the country experienced an average GDP
contraction of -12% between 2011 and 2018 due to ongoing
conflict.
Colombia has endured more than six decades of internal armed
conflict, primarily with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of
Colombia – People’s Army (FARC), since the mid-1960s. This
prolonged conflict has had severe social and economic
repercussions. According to data from the Special Jurisdiction
for Peace (JEP, 2023), the FARC was responsible for 96,952
homicides, 29,410 forced disappearances, 20,223 kidnappings,
and the recruitment of 12,038 children and adolescents. To end
the violence, peace negotiations were initiated in 2012 and

UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE PERNAMBUCO
CENTRO DE CIÊNCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
DEPARTAMENTO DE ECONOMIA
PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ECONOMIA

UFPE - Centro de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
Departamento de Economia

Av.dosEconomistas s/n, 1º. Andar – Cidade Universitária - 50.740-580 - Recife -PE
(81) 2126-8978 – pimes.ccsa@ufpe.br - https://sites.google.com/view/pimes/principal
culminated in the signing of a peace agreement in 2016. Despite
the historical significance of the accord, it has remained
controversial within Colombian society, dividing public opinion
between its proponents and opponents. Critics argue that it has
encouraged impunity and failed to significantly reduce violence,
citing the persistence of guerrilla activity and the emergence of
FARC dissidents.
Given this context, the first essay explores the impact of the
peace process on the misallocation of manufacturing plants in
departments most affected by the armed conflict. Using a
difference-in-differences framework and building on the model
of Hsieh and Klenow (2009), I estimate capital and output
distortions, as well as total factor productivity (TFP), using data
from Colombia’s Annual Manufacturing Survey (EAM) for the
2000–2021 period. The preliminary results suggest a reduction in
output distortions among plants in conflict-affected departments
following the peace negotiations. However, capital distortions in
these same regions increased, likely due to an inverse
relationship between the two distortion indicators. Importantly,
these plants also experienced a relative increase in TFP
compared to those in less affected regions.
The second essay analyzes the effects of the peace agreement on
academic achievement. Using school-level aggregated Saber 11
test scores from the Colombian Institute for the Evaluation of
Education (ICFES) from 2011 to 2023 and applying a standard
difference-in-differences model, the preliminary results show a
decline in test performance in municipalities historically most
affected by the conflict following the peace treaty.
The third essay assesses the peace agreement’s impact on
multidimensional poverty using indicators from ICFES, the
National Planning Department (DNP), and the Ministry of
National Education (MEN) for the 2011–2020 period. The
difference-in-differences analysis suggests that the peace process
contributed to a reduction in the Multidimensional Poverty Index
(MPI) in the municipalities most affected by the conflict. These
results, while promising, remain preliminary.

MEMBROS DA BANCA:
Externo à Instituição - GERSON JAVIER PEREZ
Externo à Instituição - DEWIN PEREZ FUENTES
Externo à Instituição - BLADIMIR CARRILLO BERMUDEZ
Externo à Instituição - CARLOS CHARRIS
Interno - 1037486 - EDILBERTO TIAGO DE ALMEIDA
Interno - 3384435 - FRANCISCO DE LIMA CAVALCANTI
Interno - 3090832 - GIUSEPPE TREVISAN CRUZ
Interno - 3340336 - HENRIQUE VERAS DE PAIVA FONSECA
Presidente - 2145848 - PAULO HENRIQUE PEREIRA DE MENESES VAZ